Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 280600
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with isolated very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a tornado threat are expected across parts of the Great
Plains. A couple of brief tornadoes will also be possible in the
Southeast in conjunction with Alberto.
...Central and southern High Plains region...
Shortwave trough currently rounding base of a cutoff upper low
circulation centered over the Great Basin will continue northeast
through eastern CO today. A quasi-stationary front reinforced by
convective outflow will persist from northern CO northeast through
NE into MN at the start of the period. Dryline will sharpen across
western KS and west TX. East winds north of the stationary front
will support influx of richer low-level moisture (50s dewpoints)
into the Front Range, and dewpoints in the low 60s are expected east
of the dryline beneath a warm elevated mixed layer. A corridor of
moderate to strong instability will likely evolve from northeast CO
into western NE and south through the High Plains of KS into west
TX. The combination of diabatic warming, upslope flow and forcing
for ascent attending the approaching shortwave trough should result
in the initiation of thunderstorms over the higher terrain of
northern CO into southeast WY. Other storms will likely develop
farther south across western KS into west TX in association with
dryline mixing and convergence. Vertical wind profiles with long
hodographs will support supercells capable of producing very large
hail, though a few tornadoes will be possible initially in vicinity
of the boundary across northeast CO into southeast WY. Farther
south, storms may initially be high based across western KS into the
TX Panhandle with primary threats being very large hail and damaging
wind. However, a window for at least a couple of tornadoes will
exist during the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens and
augments 0-1 km hodographs and as storms move into better low-level
moisture. With time, storms may tend to congeal into several
lines/clusters with primary threat becoming damaging wind by mid
evening.
...Southeast States...
Alberto continues to entrain dry air, suggesting some diabatic
heating will likely occur within the outer bands as the center moves
north and inland today. Low-level hodographs north and east of the
center will support some risk for low-level mesocyclones and a
tornado or two with storms developing within the outer convergence
bands during the afternoon and early evening.
...Lower Michigan...
Moderate instability is expected as the boundary layer warms
supporting inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Vertical wind profiles
with 25-30 kt effective bulk shear will support multicell storm
modes and the environment will support some risk for damaging wind
and hail. Primary limiting factor is potential sparse storm
coverage.
..Dial/Gleason/Wendt.. 05/28/2018
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