Jun 3, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 3 16:59:00 UTC 2018 (20180603 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180603 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180603 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 73,586 1,822,024 Albuquerque, NM...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...
MARGINAL 493,808 46,388,179 Houston, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180603 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 63,136 1,439,755 Albuquerque, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...Roswell, NM...South Valley, NM...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180603 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 73,392 1,821,347 Albuquerque, NM...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...
5 % 488,978 45,978,760 Houston, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...El Paso, TX...New Orleans, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180603 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 38,883 1,247,500 Albuquerque, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...South Valley, NM...Alamogordo, NM...
5 % 228,441 12,582,896 Spokane, WA...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...Midland, TX...Sandy Springs, GA...
   SPC AC 031659

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO
   INTO WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, with large hail and
   wind damage the main threats, is this afternoon and evening across
   parts of New Mexico into west/southwest Texas. Other more isolated
   severe thunderstorms are possible across the Gulf Coast States and
   near the Appalachians as well as the northern Rockies.

   ...New Mexico into west/southwest Texas...
   A shortwave trough will continue to spread northeastward over the
   southern Rockies and reach the south-central High Plains late
   tonight. Some thunderstorms are already occurring this morning
   across northern into central New Mexico. A very moist air mass for
   the region and gradual heating/destabilization this afternoon will
   allow for additional development over interior/west-central New
   Mexico, and by late afternoon across south-central New Mexico/nearby
   Mexico into far west Texas. Strong vertical shear (40+ kt effective
   shear) will support some supercells capable of large hail, some
   severe-caliber wind gusts, and perhaps even a tornado. It still
   appears plausible, if not likely, that storms will merge and grow
   upscale and spread generally eastward into west/southwest Texas
   during the evening into the overnight with the possibility of a
   continued damaging wind risk along with some hail.

   ...Gulf Coast/Southeast States...
   Isolated severe storms capable of wind damage and some hail are
   expected this afternoon and early evening across the region. A very
   moist air mass exists across the region in advance of a
   south/southeastward-moving cold front, with an elevated mixed
   layer/steep mid-level lapse rates noted along the Gulf Coast into
   Georgia as noted per 12Z observed soundings (7+ C/km 700-500 lapse
   rates noted as far northeast as Atlanta/FFC). Although larger scale
   forcing will be weak on the periphery of the southern tier upper
   ridge, the front, and perhaps more so, some residual/subtle outflows
   and zones of differential heating will influence isolated to widely
   scattered thunderstorm development within a destabilizing air mass.
   A few south/southeastward-moving clusters of storms may evolve
   across the region this afternoon with wind damage and some hail
   possible.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians vicinity...
   Isolated severe storms capable of wind damage and possibly some hail
   are expected this afternoon across the region. Although mid-level
   lapse rates will not be steep, a relatively moist air mass (60s F
   surface dewpoints) and ample insolation/heating will occur across
   the upper Ohio River Valley and nearby Appalachians in advance of an
   eastward-moving cold front. Aided by the glancing influence of a
   shortwave trough over the Great Lakes, storms should increase and
   intensify this afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen, with such
   development initially spanning eastern portions of Ohio, Kentucky,
   and Tennessee. At least isolated instances of wind damage and some
   hail are expected as storms spread eastward through the afternoon
   into evening.

   ...Interior Northwest/northern Rockies...
   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
   afternoon into evening, initially over eastern Oregon, and move
   rapidly northeastward across the outlook area into this evening,
   offering the potential for isolated damaging wind and marginally
   severe hail. Lower-elevation surface dew points generally in the 40s
   F and steep low/middle-level lapse rates -- the latter including
   very well-mixed boundary layers -- will support the development of
   MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg in the preconvective environment.  Strong
   mid/upper-level flow will contribute to deep-layer speed shear and
   30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. Limiting factors will include
   lack of both more robust buoyancy and low-level shear.

   ..Guyer/Cook.. 06/03/2018

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