Philadelphia, PA...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Oklahoma City, OK...
MARGINAL
462,356
38,298,101
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...Virginia Beach, VA...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
135,507
15,495,905
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, VA...Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
264,485
37,471,474
Philadelphia, PA...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 %
460,789
39,283,346
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
35,702
2,060,104
Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...
15 %
117,761
15,392,803
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Plano, TX...
5 %
401,063
26,173,518
Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Virginia Beach, VA...Arlington, TX...
SPC AC 231953
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY...ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from the southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley and
a portion of the Southeast States. Other severe storms are expected
over the Middle Atlantic region and central High Plains.
Overall minor changes have been made to the Day 1 Outlook this
update. Some trimming was done on the southern end of the Slight
risk from TX to AL based on latest surface observation and hi-res
guidance trends. The sig hail area was expanded north and east
across central OK to account for the current position of the outflow
boundary and expected storm initiation over the next couple of
hours. See MCD 838 for more details on this threat.
Additional adjustments include expanding the eastern CO Slight risk
eastward into portions of far western KS as guidance has been
consistent in maintaining storm cluster across this area this
evening. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats with this
activity. See MCD 839 for more details.
Finally, operational HRRR guidance suggests this cluster may persist
overnight into parts of southwest KS and northwest OK and a marginal
wind and hail threat could accompany this activity. The Marginal
risk area was expanded to account for this potential. Otherwise, no
other changes were made.
..Leitman.. 06/23/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/
...TN and lower MS Valley region today...
The remnants of an overnight MCS, now moving into northwest AL and
southern middle TN, will be accompanied by some threat for damaging
winds about as far east as southeast TN and northwest GA through
early afternoon, given a belt of 40+ kt flow near 700 mb (enhanced
some by the MCV with the convection). However, the widespread
clouds/convection ongoing farther to the south in AL casts doubt of
the degree of destabilization possible in advance of these storms.
Otherwise, additional strong/isolated severe storms could evolve
from the ongoing central AL storms into GA, or develop this
afternoon along the residual outflow from southeast AR into MS and
eventually spread into central AL (along the southern fringe of the
current storms). Damaging outflow gusts will be the main threat.
...Northwest TX into southern OK this afternoon into early
tonight...
The outflow boundary from overnight and ongoing convection has
consolidated immediately north of I-20 across north central and
northeast TX, and the boundary may begin to retreat a little to the
north across northwest TX this afternoon. An influx of low-mid 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints into the boundary, along with daytime
heating and midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km, will boost MLCAPE into
the 3000-4000 J/kg range this afternoon. This corridor will lie
along the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow (near or
above 30 kt), with some enhancement to low-level shear along the
boundary. The net result will be profiles sufficient for supercells
where deep mixing reduces convective inhibition across northwest TX,
and in the warm advection zone to the north into southern OK this
afternoon/evening. The strongest storms could produce isolated very
large hail and damaging gusts.
...Chesapeake region this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel trough over the upper OH Valley will progress
east-northeastward to southern New England tonight. Embedded speed
maxima will continue to rotate around the southeast periphery of the
trough and interact with a diffuse lee trough across VA. The richer
low-level moisture/buoyancy should remain near Chesapeake Bay
through the afternoon, while mid-upper flow/shear will be sufficient
for organized storms. A few supercells will be possible, with a
primary threat for a few damaging gusts.
...Central High Plains this afternoon through early tonight...
Another midlevel trough is beginning to amplify and will move from
the northern Rockies to WY/CO tonight. Low-level moisture is
returning northward across southeast CO in the wake of overnight
convection, and profiles will become sufficient for supercells by
this afternoon. A few storms should form along the Palmer Divide,
and potentially the Raton Mesa, and then spread east-southeastward
over the Plains this evening. There are still some concerns
regarding storm coverage, but any supercells that form will be
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and storms could
grow into a small cluster and persist into early tonight.
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