Surprise, AZ...Sun City, AZ...Prescott, AZ...Sun City West, AZ...Prescott Valley, AZ...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,701
1,058,442
Peoria, AZ...Surprise, AZ...Sun City, AZ...Prescott, AZ...Sun City West, AZ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,514
701,473
Surprise, AZ...Prescott, AZ...Sun City West, AZ...Prescott Valley, AZ...El Mirage, AZ...
SPC AC 110054
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AZ...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms capable of strong winds and hail will
continue tonight across parts of northwest and central Arizona.
...01z Update -- Portions of Northwest into Central AZ...
The Marginal risk area has been trimmed across AZ to reflect where
current severe convection is ongoing between PRC and GCN and where
severe threat may extend to the south/southwest should upscale
growth occur. 00z RAOB from FGZ shows around 25kt northeasterly
effective shear and very steep midlevel lapse rates. This
environment will support a couple of intense cells/clusters with
hail and strong winds the main concern. Storms have struggled to
maintain themselves moving off of the higher terrain of the Mogollon
Rim as deep layer flow weakens with southward extent. Given these
observational trends and sparse storm coverage, shrinking of the
Marginal risk area appears appropriate at this time.
Elsewhere, changes in the 10% general thunderstorm line have been
made to account for current trends.
..Leitman.. 08/11/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
