SPC AC 140053

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

   Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of
   central and western Arizona this evening. Strong wind gusts and hail
   will also be possible in parts of northeast New Mexico.

   ...Northeastern New Mexico...
   A couple of strong thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast New Mexico
   this evening. The storms are located along the western edge of a
   corridor of moderate instability analyzed by the RAP in the southern
   High Plains. Although the RAP is only showing a maximum of MLCAPE of
   1000-1200 J/kg in northeast New Mexico, the WSR-88D VWP at Tucumcari
   has about 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This along with steep lapse rates
   may be enough to continue a marginal severe threat for a couple of
   more hours. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats.


   ...Central and Western Arizona...
   The latest radar imagery shows several small clusters of
   thunderstorms across central and northwestern Arizona. The stronger
   thunderstorms are located to the north and northwest of the Phoenix
   area near the northern edge of the stronger instability. The RAP is
   analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range across much of
   central and western Arizona where forecast soundings show modest
   deep-layer shear, perhaps enough for a marginal severe threat. This
   environment combined with surface temperature-dewpoint spreads of 30
   to 40 degrees F and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may be enough
   for a few strong wind gusts for a few more hours this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 08/14/2018

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