Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
49,499
865,844
Fargo, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...Hibbing, MN...Fergus Falls, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 251235
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN MN AND
SOUTHEAST ND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts are possible between
about 4 pm to 12 am CDT in northern Minnesota and southeast North
Dakota.
...Red River Valley of the North...
A shortwave impulse will move from the Prairie Provinces towards
Hudson Bay. A trailing surface cold front will slow its eastward
advance and stall across northwest MN and far southeast ND by this
evening. Rich boundary-layer moisture is confined well south of this
region in southern portions of the Corn Belt. Modified
boundary-layer moisture characterized by upper 50s to lower 60s dew
points amid steep mid-level lapse rates should yield a corridor of
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) along the front.
Guidance varies in the degree of convergence on the front given weak
large-scale ascent. Some models suggest storm development will be
confined to near the international border in northwest MN during the
later afternoon. A few others indicate potential development this
evening north of the front as warm advection increases downstream of
the low-level thermal ridge nosing towards the central ND/SD border.
In either case, storm coverage will likely remain isolated.
Mid/upper-level speed shear will be adequate for mid-level updraft
rotation. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging winds should be
the main hazards.
...Midwest...
Low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will decay as it
moves across central Ontario. Weak mid-level height rises in its
wake and lack of coherent surface boundaries to focus late day storm
development render low confidence in reintroducing MRGL risk
delineation from prior outlooks.
..Grams/Peters.. 08/25/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
| 
)
