Sep 13, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 13 19:42:25 UTC 2018 (20180913 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180913 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180913 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 10,379 727,426 Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...New Bern, NC...Kinston, NC...Havelock, NC...
MARGINAL 11,866 1,130,552 Wilmington, NC...Rocky Mount, NC...Wilson, NC...Goldsboro, NC...Elizabeth City, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180913 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 10,379 729,351 Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...New Bern, NC...Kinston, NC...Havelock, NC...
2 % 11,856 1,128,509 Wilmington, NC...Rocky Mount, NC...Wilson, NC...Goldsboro, NC...Elizabeth City, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180913 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180913 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

   Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NORTH
   CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina in
   association with Hurricane Florence.

   ...Discussion...
   No change was made to the previous outlook.  For short-term details
   regarding the risk for a tornado over eastern NC, refer to MCD
   #1445.

   ..Smith.. 09/13/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018/

   ...Eastern NC...
   No change this forecast. Mid to upper 70s boundary-layer dew points
   are prevalent across the region yielding weak to modest buoyancy
   with MLCAPE varying from 500-1500 J/kg from southwest to northeast.
   While northerly surface winds are fairly pervasive at present
   northwest of Florence, northeasterly slowly becoming easterly winds
   will occur across the Outer to Inner Banks through tonight as
   Florence approaches the southeast NC coast. Low-level
   northeasterlies are already rather strong per MHX VWP data yielding
   an enlarged hodograph and sufficient SRH for a brief tornado. The
   primary tornado threat this afternoon and evening will be in any
   outer convective bands across the Inner and Outer Banks. This risk
   should gradually expand a bit farther inland tonight amid weak
   instability, but likely remain confined across eastern NC given the
   expected slow west-northwest track of Florence per NHC.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z