Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 150100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
A risk for a few tornadoes continues tonight across parts of eastern
North Carolina, especially over southeastern North Carolina coastal
...Eastern NC -- Tropical Storm Florence...
As Florence makes a slow west-southwestward drift tonight, the
climatologically favored northeast quadrant should largely remain
over eastern NC, where 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 should remain in
place through the overnight hours. The greatest relative risk will
be concentrated within a plume of convection that will likely remain
in place overnight between Morehead City and Wilmington, where
transient mini-supercell structures may tend to regenerate over the
higher theta-e airmass offshore. See MCD #1452 for more information
regarding the threat in this area.
...Eastern ND into Central/Northern MN...
Elevated thunderstorms have recently developed across eastern ND
into central MN. An increasing low-level jet will support an
increase in convective coverage into the overnight hours. Effective
shear of 35-45 kt and long hodographs will support a large hail
threat with more discrete cells, though a tendency for storm mergers
may tend to limit the threat later tonight. See MCD #1453 for more
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z