Sep 30, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 30 16:19:38 UTC 2018 (20180930 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180930 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180930 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180930 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180930 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180930 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 301619

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018

   Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not forecast through tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Forecast...
   Severe potential is expected to remain very low today across the
   CONUS. Similar to yesterday, a few pulse-type stronger storms could
   occur this afternoon across the coastal Southeast/Gulf Coast States,
   but any severe potential is likely to remain highly localized and
   marginal.

   Thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across parts of the Middle
   Missouri River Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley as warm
   advection/isentropic ascent increases to the north of a front. Some
   small hail may occur tonight across eastern NE into IA, but
   severe-caliber hailstones currently appear unlikely. Near/south of
   the front, little if any ascent atop the warm sector and residual
   mid-level capping are likely to preclude the development of
   near-surface-based thunderstorms across central KS, where modest
   destabilization should otherwise occur as low-level clouds gradually
   erode this afternoon.

   For the Southwest U.S., Hurricane Rosa is expected to continue
   northeastward toward Baja through tonight with a slow gradual
   weakening/disorganizing trend. Although richer low-level moisture
   will continue to arrive into southern AZ, relatively weak vertical
   shear and limited destabilization through today's diurnal heating
   cycle is likely to limit the potential for severe storms.

   ..Guyer/Wendt.. 09/30/2018

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