Oct 15, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 15 12:45:42 UTC 2018 (20181015 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181015 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181015 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 31,249 33,336,524 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181015 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181015 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,110 33,185,215 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181015 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 151245

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

   Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across the northern
   Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this evening.

   ...Northern Mid Atlantic to southern New England this evening...
   A deep midlevel shortwave trough over the upper Great Lakes this
   morning will move quickly eastward to New England by tonight.  A
   surface cold front will surge across the Mid Atlantic and New
   England to the south of a deepening surface cyclone across southern
   QC.  Rapid low-level moisture return will occur from eastern NC this
   morning to southern New England by this evening in advance of the
   front.  Clouds will generally limit surface heating, but at least
   weak surface-based buoyancy (CAPE of 250-500 J/kg) is expected
   immediately in advance of the cold front.  Low-level ascent along
   the front will contribute to the development of a narrow band of
   low-topped convection along the front (with some potential for
   lightning).  Given the expected increase in low-midlevel flow by
   this evening (50-70 kt), downward momentum transport in the
   convection could result in isolated damaging gusts late this evening
   from the northern Mid Atlantic coast into southern New England.

   ...Middle and Lower TX coast today...
   A strong cold front will continue to move southeastward across TX
   and the lower MS Valley.  Moderate-strong buoyancy and rich
   low-level moisture across south TX this morning will support
   thunderstorm development near and immediately north of the front. 
   Relatively weak vertical shear in the warm sector will support
   multicell storm clusters that will be quickly undercut by the cold
   front, which will tend to limit the threat for large hail and/or
   damaging gusts.

   ..Thompson/Picca.. 10/15/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z