Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 161927
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Carolinas
this evening.
...Discussion...
No change has been made to the previous forecast.
..Smith.. 10/16/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/
...Carolinas...
Have added a Marginal Risk given increased confidence in a few
mid-level rotating storms this evening.
Despite neutral mid-level height change, convergence along a
quasi-stationary front may strengthen during the late afternoon and
evening. As surface temperatures warm through the 80s within the
warm sector amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
should develop. A few storms may form between 22-00Z near the
upstate NC/SC border area as a diffuse mid/upper-level speed max
moves from MS toward the Carolinas. Deep-layer vertical shear will
be favorable for mid-level rotation, but the overall storm intensity
should be limited by the modest combination of lapse rates/low-level
winds along and south of the front. Given the increased CAM signal
for scattered convection near the boundary, locally strong wind
gusts might yield tree damage and thus have added a corridor of
damaging wind probabilities.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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