Oct 18, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 18 12:50:57 UTC 2018 (20181018 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181018 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181018 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181018 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181018 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181018 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 181250

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas coast and
   the Florida Peninsula, and parts of the Intermountain West through
   tonight, but severe storms are not anticipated.

   ...Synopsis...
   A closed midlevel low over UT this morning will begin to move
   eastward and start to phase with a northern stream shortwave trough
   that will dig southeastward across the Prairie provinces toward ND. 
   Cool midlevel temperatures, sufficiently steep lapse rates, and weak
   buoyancy will support a threat for isolated thunderstorms (mainly
   this afternoon) immediately in advance of the weakening midlevel
   low.  Farther southeast, a low-level warm advection regime is
   becoming established across TX.  Buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb
   layer will support some weak midlevel convection across much of
   central TX.  However, sufficiently deep buoyancy to support charge
   separation and isolated lightning strikes is more likely near coast
   and offshore warm sector.  Otherwise, despite negligible large-scale
   forcing for ascent, isolated thunderstorms will be possible within
   the lingering tropical air mass across FL, primarily along the front
   across north FL.

   ..Thompson/Mosier.. 10/18/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z