Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 241613
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over the western/central
Gulf Coast region, and possibly late tonight over eastern North
Dakota. No severe weather is expected.
...Discussion...
No changes are warranted to the 13z outlook.
Latest water-vapor imagery depicts the remnants of Willa have
progressed across northern Mexico to a position just southwest of
LRD. This feature will likely aid the development of a weak surface
low along a frontal zone over the northwest Gulf of Mexico later
today. Latest radar/lightning data suggests this process is under
way with a small cluster of thunderstorms currently located just
east of CRP, drifting slowly northeast along the boundary. As this
weak low evolves it appears the warm front over the northern Gulf
Basin will begin to advance toward the upper TX and LA coasts. Deep
convection along/north of this advancing wind shift may retard the
northward extent of more buoyant air mass and higher instability
should remain just offshore. For these reasons will not introduce
low severe probs; however, strengthening high-level flow ahead of
Willa/short-wave trough suggests some organizational potential is
possible if a higher theta-e air mass does spread inland.
Farther north across the upper Red River Valley, weak elevated
convection may evolve ahead of a short-wave trough. Greatest
convective threat will be during the latter half of the period and
this activity should be driven by low-level warm advection focused
over eastern ND.
..Darrow/Leitman.. 10/24/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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