SPC AC 260052

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0752 PM CDT Thu Oct 25 2018

   Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST......

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across portions of
   the Southeast tonight.  A low severe risk exists near the coast.

   ...Southeast U.S....
   Evening surface analysis reveals a weak surface low over southern
   MS, with a cold front extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico. 
   A warm front extended from the low east across the central FL
   peninsula.  Latest mesoanalysis and 00Z upper-air data sampled a
   weakly buoyant air mass near the coast and the presence of modest
   (around 35 kts) effective shear, with greater instability/stronger
   shear farther south over the offshore waters within the warm/moist
   sector.  Isolated thunderstorms had developed about 50 miles
   south/southwest of Panama City FL, and additional thunderstorm
   development is expected in response to weak warm/moist advection and
   frontal convergence overnight as the surface low and cold front move
   east.  Enlarged low-level hodographs in latest RAP/NAM forecast
   soundings in response to strengthening low-level flow suggests at
   least some potential for low-level rotation with isolated stronger
   storms near and just offshore of the coast.  Gusty winds will also
   be possible across the Marginal Risk area.

   After 09Z, some increase in thunderstorms is expected near the
   northeast FL/GA coast in response to strengthening warm advection as
   the warm front lifts northward.  The overall severe risk near the
   coast still appears low, with any potential for stronger storms
   remaining farther offshore.

   ..Bunting.. 10/26/2018

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