Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
43,116
10,683,869
Philadelphia, PA...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
29,505
4,782,663
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
54,634
2,924,941
Little Rock, AR...Fort Smith, AR...Allen, TX...Frisco, TX...North Little Rock, AR...
SPC AC 061259
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Tue Nov 06 2018
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
are possible across the Middle Atlantic and Southeast States through
the afternoon. Marginally severe hail may develop during the evening
and overnight hours across eastern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region.
...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
The remnants of a severe-producing squall line last night continue
to progress eastward across the southern Appalachians vicinity into
central AL as of 13Z. A negatively tilted trough and related very
strong polar jet streak (120+ kt at 500 mb) will continue steadily
northeastward from the Ohio Valley toward the northeast States and
Quebec by evening.
Prevalent pre-frontal cloud cover and poor lapse rates will largely
limit overall destabilization, especially in areas coincident with
the more appreciable dynamical forcing for ascent related to the
previously described upper trough. Even so, the strength of the
deep-layer wind field could yield isolated damaging wind gusts
today. The relatively greatest overlap of larger-scale
forcing/vertical shear and modest destabilization should exist
across the Mid-Atlantic States, generally from NC toward the
Delmarva. Damaging wind gusts aside, strong southwesterly winds
within the lowest 2-3km (~850 mb jet entrance region) could also
yield a risk for a tornado.
Farther south, across the Southeast States, the early-morning squall
line is expected to continue to sag southeastward and gradually
weaken as primary shortwave trough ejects well north of this region.
In the absence of large-scale support, it appears gusty winds will
be the primary risk with this devolving squall line and any
redevelopment along/ahead of it.
...Eastern Oklahoma/ArkLaTex...
Strong/cyclonically curved upper-level flow will persist with an
upstream speed max glancingly influencing the region tonight. In
response, a modestly strengthening low-level jet will aid elevated
moisture transport across the region, with elevated thunderstorms
expected to develop and increase through the mid/late evening hours
initially across eastern/southern OK and nearby far north TX.
Although mid-level lapse rates will not be robust, sufficient
elevated instability in the presence of long straight hodographs
through the cloud-bearing layer could support some marginally severe
hail, mainly late this evening into the overnight.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/06/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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