Nov 6, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 6 12:59:59 UTC 2018 (20181106 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181106 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181106 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 29,572 4,785,961 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
MARGINAL 199,011 33,849,827 Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181106 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 43,116 10,683,869 Philadelphia, PA...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181106 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 29,505 4,782,663 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
5 % 145,107 31,374,881 Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181106 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 54,634 2,924,941 Little Rock, AR...Fort Smith, AR...Allen, TX...Frisco, TX...North Little Rock, AR...
   SPC AC 061259

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 AM CST Tue Nov 06 2018

   Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
   are possible across the Middle Atlantic and Southeast States through
   the afternoon. Marginally severe hail may develop during the evening
   and overnight hours across eastern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region.

   ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
   The remnants of a severe-producing squall line last night continue
   to progress eastward across the southern Appalachians vicinity into
   central AL as of 13Z. A negatively tilted trough and related very
   strong polar jet streak (120+ kt at 500 mb) will continue steadily
   northeastward from the Ohio Valley toward the northeast States and
   Quebec by evening. 

   Prevalent pre-frontal cloud cover and poor lapse rates will largely
   limit overall destabilization, especially in areas coincident with
   the more appreciable dynamical forcing for ascent related to the
   previously described upper trough. Even so, the strength of the
   deep-layer wind field could yield isolated damaging wind gusts
   today. The relatively greatest overlap of larger-scale
   forcing/vertical shear and modest destabilization should exist
   across the Mid-Atlantic States, generally from NC toward the
   Delmarva. Damaging wind gusts aside, strong southwesterly winds
   within the lowest 2-3km (~850 mb jet entrance region) could also
   yield a risk for a tornado.  

   Farther south, across the Southeast States, the early-morning squall
   line is expected to continue to sag southeastward and gradually
   weaken as primary shortwave trough ejects well north of this region.
   In the absence of large-scale support, it appears gusty winds will
   be the primary risk with this devolving squall line and any
   redevelopment along/ahead of it.

   ...Eastern Oklahoma/ArkLaTex...
   Strong/cyclonically curved upper-level flow will persist with an
   upstream speed max glancingly influencing the region tonight. In
   response, a modestly strengthening low-level jet will aid elevated
   moisture transport across the region, with elevated thunderstorms
   expected to develop and increase through the mid/late evening hours
   initially across eastern/southern OK and nearby far north TX.
   Although mid-level lapse rates will not be robust, sufficient
   elevated instability in the presence of long straight hodographs
   through the cloud-bearing layer could support some marginally severe
   hail, mainly late this evening into the overnight.

   ..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/06/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z