San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
58,070
6,667,951
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...
SPC AC 080500
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Wed Nov 07 2018
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...
...SUMMARY...
A few clusters of storms are likely from southern Alabama into
Georgia today, with strong wind gusts possible. Marginal hail is
possible tonight across south-central Texas.
...Synopsis...
A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain across the bulk of
the CONUS, with various embedded shortwave troughs. The primary
upper low will move southward out of Manitoba into MN, with an
intensifying 80 kt midlevel jet across the central Plains by Friday
morning. Ahead of this feature, a separate wave will move quickly
from CO/NM into the mid MS Valley, resulting in gradual height falls
across the South overnight. To the east, a weaker low-amplitude
feature will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states during
the day. This will occur along and north of a stationary front
oriented roughly from Houston into southern GA. A moist and unstable
air mass will remain along and south of this front, with daytime
thunderstorms across the Southeast and overnight across TX as a cold
front surges south across the Plains.
...Southern AL and GA, and parts of the FL Panhandle...
Models indicate that a weak surface wave may form along the front,
from southern AL into GA during the afternoon, and ahead of a weak
disturbance aloft moving across LA, MS, and AL. Areas of heating are
possible across GA and FL, and may contribute to destabilization.
Model consensus is for storms to concentrate across southern AL, GA,
and the FL Panhandle by 21Z, and a few strong wind gusts will be
possible due to 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE near the stalled front and
weak upper support. Low-level shear will be weak, with little threat
of rotating storms.
...Texas overnight...
Although the surface front will remain across southern TX and toward
the coast, sufficient elevated moisture and instability will remain
over much of the state as 850 mb winds remain southwesterly.
Scattered storms are most likely to form after 00Z, along and ahead
of the deepening cold front as it travels southward across the state
overnight. Strong deep-layer shear in the effective cloud layer will
result in long hodographs and may support cellular activity, some of
which could produce marginally severe hail.
..Jewell/Wendt.. 11/08/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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