Nov 9, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 9 00:42:43 UTC 2018 (20181109 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181109 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181109 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 68,426 10,673,151 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181109 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181109 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181109 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 67,805 10,560,635 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...
   SPC AC 090042

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 PM CST Thu Nov 08 2018

   Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL
   THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few instances of hail approaching severe levels remain possible
   tonight across south-central through south Texas.

   ...South central through south Texas...

   A cold front located across deep south TX will continue slowly
   southward tonight, along with the deeper portion of baroclinic zone
   currently located across north central TX. Modest southwesterly flow
   above the frontal inversion will sustain isentropic ascent in this
   region, with the zone of deeper ascent gradually spreading
   southward, promoting development of additional elevated
   thunderstorms across central and south TX tonight. The 00Z RAOB data
   indicate only modest (6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates above the
   moist layer, with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE along with 30-40 kt
   effective bulk shear. Weak to modest mid-level rotation may exist
   within the stronger updrafts, and these storms could pose some
   threat for mainly hail into the overnight hours.

   ..Dial.. 11/09/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z