New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
33,418
3,981,330
New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
33,488
3,983,329
New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 251256
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Sun Nov 25 2018
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE AL
COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe storms are possible from southeast
Louisiana today into coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this
evening through tonight.
...Northern Gulf coast through tonight...
A well developed midlevel trough over KS this morning will progress
to OH by early Monday, along with an accompanying surface cyclone.
A trailing cold front will move eastward across the lower MS
Valley/TN Valley and northern Gulf coast. Low-level moisture is
spreading northward along the LA coast this morning in a warm
advection regime ahead of the cold front, with boundary-layer
dewpoints in the lower 70s across the northwest Gulf. The northern
edge of the richer moisture will overspread southern/southeastern LA
today, and farther east from AL into the FL Panhandle by this
evening and overnight. Surface-based buoyancy will be largest near
the coast, and vertical shear will be strongest in the warm
advection zone just northeast of the surface warm sector. Much of
the convection north of I-10 should remain elevated, while there
will be a small window of opportunity for damaging gusts and/or a
brief tornado closer to the coast.
...Northeast KS to extreme southern IA/northern MO today...
Some midlevel convection and a couple of lightning flashes have been
observed since 11z along the southern fringe of a strengthening snow
band across north central and northeast KS. Minimal buoyancy
(MUCAPE up to 100 J/kg) rooted near 600 mb and strong forcing for
ascent will support some additional convective elements and the
potential for thunder snow through this afternoon.
..Thompson/Peters.. 11/25/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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