SPC AC 021958

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CST Sun Dec 02 2018

   Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE
   ERIE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible today from the
   Florida Panhandle to the eastern Carolinas, and near the southeast
   shore of Lake Erie.

   ...20Z Update...
   Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind an ongoing broken line
   of thunderstorms across southern GA and the FL Panhandle, as
   additional convective development behind this activity appears
   unlikely. Isolated tornadoes and strong/damaging winds will remain
   possible through this evening across this region as 1500-2500 J/kg
   of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear encourage updraft
   rotation with supercells embedded within and occurring ahead the
   line.

   No changes have been made to the Marginal/Slight risk areas for
   parts of OH/PA/NY. Although surface dewpoints have mixed generally
   into the lower to mid 40s across this area, the potential still
   exists for low-topped thunderstorms producing strong to locally
   damaging winds due to the enhanced south-southwesterly flow noted on
   recent VWPs from KCLE.

   ..Gleason.. 12/02/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Dec 02 2018/

   ...Southeast...
   Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing today along a baroclinic zone
   from the western FL Panhandle into southern GA and southern SC. 
   Ample low level moisture and shear is present along the boundary,
   but organized rotating storms are only occasionally intensifying to
   severe limits.  This trend will likely persist through the
   afternoon, with the potential for damaging wind gusts and a few
   tornadoes in the strongest cells.  Recent model guidance suggests a
   lessening severe risk farther northeast into parts of NC and central
   SC.

   ...OH/PA/NY...
   Water vapor loops shows a progressive shortwave trough over
   west-central IN.  This system will move quickly northeastward into
   OH this afternoon.  Southerly low level winds are helping to
   transport 50s dewpoints into the upper OH Valley, where full
   sunshine and steepening low level lapse rates will yield afternoon
   MLCAPE values of as high as 500 J/kg.  Despite the weak
   thermodynamic environment, forecast soundings show strong wind
   fields and an environment favorable for bowing/rotating storms. 
   Lightning may be sparse with this activity due to a shallow CAPE
   layer, but the strongest cells could produce gusty/damaging wind
   gusts.  Have opted to add a small SLGT risk to the shores of Lake
   Erie, where 12z CAM solutions offer the highest confidence of
   convection this afternoon.

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