Storm Prediction Center Dec 25, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Dec 25, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Updated: Tue Dec 25 16:25:23 UTC 2018 (

)

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 1 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic

20181225 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Tornado Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

20181225 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Wind Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

20181225 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Hail Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 251625

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern California
   today, Arizona this evening, and the southern to central Plains
   overnight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over southern CA this morning
   will move eastward over AZ this evening and northwestern Mexico and
   western New Mexico by 26/12z.  Isolated thunderstorms will be
   possible today across southern CA within the steep lapse rate
   environment with cool midlevel temperatures (-24 C at 500 mb) and
   weak buoyancy.  This regime will spread eastward across AZ by this
   evening, where modest low-midlevel moistening will support weak
   buoyancy and an attendant isolated thunderstorm threat.  Farther
   east, moisture return is underway across south TX, where
   boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid 60s.  The moist layer will
   spread north-northwestward but remain capped until late tonight,
   when low-level warm advection and moistening/ascent should be
   sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms from northwestern TX to
   southern KS.  Some small hail cannot be ruled out from 06-12z
   Wednesday morning, though severe hail appears unlikely.

   ..Thompson/Cook.. 12/25/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z