Jan 9, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 9 16:08:38 UTC 2018 (20180109 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180109 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180109 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180109 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 091608

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1008 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2018

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few weak thunderstorms are possible from New Mexico and Colorado
   eastward across the central Plains, and over the eastern Florida
   Peninsula.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A highly amplified upper trough will move from the Rockies into the
   Plains on Wednesday, with upper ridges across the east and west
   coasts. Within the central U.S. trough, an embedded wave will move
   northeastward from the southern Plains toward the lower Missouri
   Valley, with a primary jet max digging into northern Mexico on the
   backside of the trough. At the surface, only gradual moistening will
   occur from TX into the lower and middle MS Valleys due to southerly
   surface winds around a surface high over the East.  A cold front
   will drive southeastward across the Plains late in the day, with
   lift north of the front. Low amounts of elevated instability will
   likely materialize, sufficient for a few weak thunderstorms, the
   greatest concentration of which should be from KS into IA as a low
   develops along the front. However, these storms will not be severe.

   Elsewhere, a weak upper low will meander across the Florida Straits,
   with cool air aloft aiding in weak destabilization as modestly moist
   low-level easterlies persist. A few of the deeper showers may become
   thunderstorms over the Atlantic, and perhaps affecting the eastern
   Florida coast and Keys.

   ..Jewell.. 01/09/2018

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