SPC AC 220625

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Mid-Atlantic into
   southern New England Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon and
   across the southern Florida Peninsula Tuesday afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   Mature cyclone will eject northeastward through the Northeast with
   accompanying strong flow aloft stretching from the Southeast states
   into the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface, occluded low will drift
   northeastward across southern Ontario/Quebec ahead of the parent
   upper trough while another low develops over New England. Related
   cold front will sweep quickly eastward from its initial position
   along the Piedmont across the Mid-Atlantic states. 

   Across the central and western CONUS, a shortwave trough will
   progress from the northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley
   while another shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest
   coast late in the period.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   Airmass ahead of the approaching front will likely be characterized
   by temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s, dewpoints in the upper
   50s, and southerly/southwesterly winds. Given that the better lift
   and cooler mid-level temperatures will be displaced north of the
   region, instability will be tempered by the generally moist profiles
   and relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Best overlap of lift and
   low-level moisture will likely exist across northern portions of the
   Mid-Atlantic region. In this area, a narrow line of convection is
   anticipated along the front. Some elevated warm-air advection
   showers and thunderstorms are possible as well. 

   Strong wind fields will support fast storm motion and the strongly
   sheared environment may result in a few more organized updrafts. As
   a result, the potential for a few damaging wind gusts exists. 
   However, limited instability will temper updraft strength and
   persistence, resulting in low severe storm coverage, precluding the
   need to delineate any threat areas.

   ..Mosier.. 01/22/2018

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