SPC AC 181655

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48
   states on Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplified pattern featuring a large-scale mid-level trough over
   ID through CA will pivot eastward to WY/MT and into the Four Corners
   by early Tuesday.  A lower-latitude trough over northern Baja
   California on Sunday will eject eastward and weaken by early Monday
   over NM.  This disturbance will weaken while its southern portion
   moves into the southern High Plains late Monday night ahead of the
   main trough.  A broad, moist conveyer will extend from the TX Gulf
   Coast north and northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. 
   Episodic bouts of showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop
   within this elongated corridor with considerable cloudiness expected
   to stifle stronger surface heating.  Instability is forecast to be
   greatest across the southern Great Plains to the east of a dryline
   where upwards of 500+ J/kg MLCAPE may develop in a narrow plume from
   western north-central TX into west-central OK.  Yet, forecast model
   guidance --including both parameterized and explicit-- do not
   develop storms during the afternoon/early evening.  As the main
   mid-level wave encroaches upon the region late Monday night,
   isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
   from the Edwards Plateau in west-central TX north into central KS
   and farther northeast into the southwest Great Lakes.

   ..Smith.. 02/18/2018

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