SPC AC 260646

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms accompanied by hail will be possible on Tuesday across
   parts of north-central and northeast Texas eastward into the
   Arklatex.

   ...Southern Plains/Arklatex...
   An upper-level ridge is forecast to be in place on Tuesday from the
   Gulf Coast States northward into the Great Lakes with southwest
   mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong mid-level jet is
   forecast to move across northwestern Mexico on Tuesday. The exit
   region of the mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains
   enhancing lift. This combined with moisture advection associated
   with a low-level jet in east-central Texas will support thunderstorm
   development. The models are in reasonable agreement that a cluster
   of elevated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon on the nose
   of the low-level jet in east-central Texas. This convection is
   forecast to expand in coverage, moving north-northeastward into the
   Arklatex by early evening. NAM forecast soundings in northeast Texas
   at 21Z on Tuesday show MUCAPE values between 750 to 1000 J/kg with
   strong effective shear profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates.
   This should be enough for a marginal hail threat with the stronger
   cells.

   ..Broyles.. 02/26/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z