Feb 28, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 28 17:16:39 UTC 2018 (20180228 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180228 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180228 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 66,951 17,107,884 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180228 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 61,573 16,037,214 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...
   SPC AC 281716

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN VA SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind-damage threat will be
   possible on Thursday from southern Virginia southwestward across the
   Carolinas into northern Georgia and east-central Alabama.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough over the OH Valley will amplify as it moves
   towards the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. on Thursday.  An
   upstream upper-level trough will remain established in the Pacific
   Northwest.  Surface low pressure will deepen as it moves from the OH
   Valley to near the southern New England coast and an associated cold
   front will move east/southeast through the mid-Atlantic and
   southeast states, extending over central/southern FL by 12Z Friday. 
   This cold front will, with time, merge with more diffuse frontal
   boundary extending from the central Appalachians southwest across
   the lower MS Valley.  A warm front extending southeast from the
   surface low across coastal VA will lift northeast during the day.  

   ...Western Carolinas southwest into east-central AL...
   Widespread clouds will likely limit insolation in advance of the
   aforementioned frontal boundaries on Thursday, with lower 60s dew
   points resulting in only weak surface-based buoyancy during the day.
    Lower/mid-level wind fields will strengthen with the amplifying
   upper trough and deepening surface low as a focused region of
   large-scale ascent moves east across the area during the day.  A
   narrow linear convective structure, possibly with minimal lightning,
   may develop and move east from mid/late morning into the early
   evening.  Despite weak surface-based instability, the presence of
   40-50 kts of southwesterly flow just above the surface will allow
   for a brief/isolated risk for strong wind gusts as higher momentum
   air is transported to the surface within stronger convective
   downdrafts.

   ..Bunting.. 02/28/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z