SPC AC 021718

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CST Fri Mar 02 2018

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and
   northern California, and a large portion of Texas, Saturday through
   Saturday night.  However, severe storms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   Large upper trough initially extending from the Pacific Northwest
   coast to the central CA coast will gradually shift eastward through
   the Great Basin as a shortwave trough pivots through its southern
   periphery. At the same time, downstream upper ridging will persist
   across the Plains and MS Valley with its eastward progress slowed by
   a mature cyclone off the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in overall
   pattern amplification. 

   Surface pattern will feature a deepening lee low over the central
   High Plains and an additional low associated with the Pacific
   Northwest system developing over UT. High pressure (associated with
   the dry continental airmass in the wake of the northern Atlantic
   system) will persist east of the MS River. Some moisture return is
   possible on the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridge,
   encouraged by increased southerly low to mid-level flow. 

   Highest thunderstorm coverage across the CONUS is anticipated across
   portions of northern and central CA where waves of generally
   cellular convection are expected amidst a steep lapse rates/cold
   mid-level temperature environment. Isolated thunderstorms are also
   anticipated within the warm-air advection regime across the southern
   Plains. There is also some indications of a fast-moving,
   low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting into the southern Plains
   during the late afternoon/evening. 

   Sporadic lightning strikes are also possible across the eastern
   Great Basin as a frontal band progresses across the region. A strike
   or two may also occur within the strong isentropic ascent across the
   mid MO Valley. However, in both of these areas, thunderstorm
   coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%.

   ..Mosier.. 03/02/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z