SPC AC 050545

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CST Sun Mar 04 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of the Gulf
   Coast into south Atlantic Coast states Tuesday into Tuesday night,
   but the risk for severe storms currently appears negligible (i.e.
   less than 5 percent).

   ...Discussion...
   In general, the latest model output offers little different from
   prior runs for this period.  Blocking within the large-scale
   mid/upper flow appears likely to persist.  Within this regime, over
   the U.S., one closed low likely will be centered near the Upper
   Midwest vicinity at 12Z Tuesday, with a number of perturbations
   migrating around it.  At least one significant impulse, initially on
   its western periphery, is forecast to pivot through the middle/lower
   Missouri Valley, before continuing to rapidly dig toward the
   Southeastern states.  By late Tuesday night, it appears that this
   will contributing to amplifying and strengthening cyclonic flow
   across much of the Southeast.  Secondary cyclogenesis probably will
   commence near the North Carolina coast, as an initial occluded
   cyclone continues to weaken over southern portions of the Great
   Lakes region into the Ohio Valley.  The cold front trailing from
   this latter feature is expected to advance through much of the
   remainder of the Southeast (aside from portions of the central and
   southern Florida Peninsula).  Some thunderstorm activity is possible
   along and ahead of the front, otherwise generally stable conditions
   across much of the rest of the nation will result in minimal
   convective potential.

   ...Northeastern Gulf coast region into south Atlantic coast...
   Thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday across parts of
   southeastern Louisiana/Mississippi, and southern Alabama into the
   western Florida Panhandle.  Much of this may be associated with a
   weak frontal wave, aided by associated forcing for ascent.  Vertical
   shear may also be potentially supportive of severe weather
   potential, but model guidance suggests probabilities for much more
   than a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE are relatively low, which seems
   likely to preclude an appreciable risk for severe weather.  Little
   further destabilization is forecast through the day, and as the
   associated forcing for ascent weakens, lingering thunderstorm
   activity is expected to diminish while spreading eastward across
   parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida.

   An increase in thunderstorm development is expected to accompany the
   onset of the secondary surface cyclogenesis Tuesday night, but
   potential for vigorous storms probably will remain offshore.  Other
   pre-frontal thunderstorm activity may attempt to develop inland off
   the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into northern/central portions of
   the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night.  But, again, potential for
   sufficient destabilization to support an appreciable risk for severe
   weather in the presence strengthening wind fields remains unclear.

   ..Kerr.. 03/05/2018

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