Mar 7, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 7 17:06:59 UTC 2018 (20180307 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180307 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180307 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180307 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071706

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 AM CST Wed Mar 07 2018

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S.
   Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Large cyclone over the northeastern CONUS at the beginning of the
   period will continue to occlude as two separate upper lows
   associated with this system consolidate into a broader circulation,
   likely centered over southern New England by 12Z Friday.  Given the
   minimal movement of this system, cyclonic flow aloft will persist
   across the central and eastern CONUS, from the Plains through the
   Southeast and off the mid-Atlantic coast. Farther west, upper
   ridging initially extending across the Intermountain West will
   dampen as a shortwave trough ejects through its northern periphery
   (i.e. across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains). Cool
   temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent associated with this
   shortwave in tandem with orographically enhanced lift will support
   sporadic lightning across the northern Rockies during the afternoon
   and evening. 

   At the surface, high pressure will shift eastward into the MS Valley
   while lee troughing deepens. Resulting increase in the surface
   pressure gradient will support strengthening southerly winds across
   the southern and central Plains. However, given the strong frontal
   passage that recently occurred and the resulting push of dry,
   continental air through much of the Gulf of Mexico, low-level
   moisture supportive of instability will remain too far south of
   impact any of the CONUS.

   ..Mosier.. 03/07/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z