SPC AC 100517

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 PM CST Fri Mar 09 2018

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE GULF
   COAST INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some severe threat will exist near the Gulf Coast to the central
   Florida Peninsula.

   ...Gulf Coast/FL...

   Mid-level speed max associated with a strong short-wave trough over
   MT is expected to dig southeast into the Ozark Plateau by Sunday
   morning before translating into the central Gulf States by the end
   of the period. This digging short wave should assist overall
   strengthening of mid-level flow across lower latitudes of the US
   with 500mb speeds expected to increase across the northern Gulf
   basin into the northern half of the FL Peninsula. As surface
   pressures build in its wake over the Plains, a notable cold front
   will surge across TX/LA during the day before progressing into the
   FL Panhandle by Monday morning. Latest model guidance suggests ample
   buoyancy will exist ahead of the front for potential robust
   convection, especially given the expected height falls and
   strengthening shear. NAM forecast soundings near the Gulf coast
   exhibit modest lapse rates and instability such that organized
   convection is certainly possible as large-scale forcing for ascent
   spreads southeast toward coastal regions. Greatest severe risk will
   be isolated large hail and the potential for a few severe wind gusts
   also exists.

   ..Darrow.. 03/10/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z