Mar 28, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 28 04:49:17 UTC 2018 (20180328 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180328 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180328 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 45,120 4,576,011 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Tuscaloosa, AL...
MARGINAL 81,495 12,284,260 Atlanta, GA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180328 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 45,249 4,593,690 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Tuscaloosa, AL...
5 % 81,707 12,302,778 Atlanta, GA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
   SPC AC 280449

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH AND NEARBY GULF COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across parts of
   the Deep South on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A southern stream shortwave trough is expected to eject
   northeastward from the southern Plains through the TN Valley and
   into the Northeast while losing amplitude in the confluent flow
   aloft. Surface low associated with this shortwave will take a
   similar path northeastward with an attendant cold front sweeping
   eastward/southeastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and TN
   and OH Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
   the beginning of the period across the lower MS Valley (well ahead
   of the cold front) with some threat for severe thunderstorms
   possible during the afternoon/evening across portions of the Deep
   South.

   ...Southeast States...
   A convective line resulting from overnight activity across southeast
   TX and western portions of the Lower MS Valley will likely be moving
   through MS at the beginning of period. This line will likely be
   weak, owing to limited instability and displacement of the better
   forcing farther west. As the shortwave trough continues
   eastward/northeastward, a reinvigoration or redevelopment of the
   storms within this convective line is anticipated. Storm strength
   will likely be mitigated by limited instability and the tendency for
   storms to be undercut but vertical shear is expected to be strong
   enough (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) to support
   rotating updrafts within any storms that are able to persist.
   Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts although a brief
   tornado also appears possible.

   ...Central TX...
   Some destabilization is possible across the region as diurnal
   heating occurs behind the convective line but ahead of the
   approaching cold front. Current guidance suggests the airmass will
   remain capped but only a minor increase in temperatures and/or
   dewpoints would be needed to remove the convective inhibition.
   Portions of this region may need to be included in general thunder
   in subsequent outlooks.

   ..Mosier.. 03/28/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z