SPC AC 280449
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND NEARBY GULF COAST REGION...
Some potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across parts of
the Deep South on Thursday.
A southern stream shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward from the southern Plains through the TN Valley and
into the Northeast while losing amplitude in the confluent flow
aloft. Surface low associated with this shortwave will take a
similar path northeastward with an attendant cold front sweeping
eastward/southeastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and TN
and OH Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
the beginning of the period across the lower MS Valley (well ahead
of the cold front) with some threat for severe thunderstorms
possible during the afternoon/evening across portions of the Deep
A convective line resulting from overnight activity across southeast
TX and western portions of the Lower MS Valley will likely be moving
through MS at the beginning of period. This line will likely be
weak, owing to limited instability and displacement of the better
forcing farther west. As the shortwave trough continues
eastward/northeastward, a reinvigoration or redevelopment of the
storms within this convective line is anticipated. Storm strength
will likely be mitigated by limited instability and the tendency for
storms to be undercut but vertical shear is expected to be strong
enough (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) to support
rotating updrafts within any storms that are able to persist.
Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts although a brief
tornado also appears possible.
Some destabilization is possible across the region as diurnal
heating occurs behind the convective line but ahead of the
approaching cold front. Current guidance suggests the airmass will
remain capped but only a minor increase in temperatures and/or
dewpoints would be needed to remove the convective inhibition.
Portions of this region may need to be included in general thunder
in subsequent outlooks.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z