SPC AC 011717

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 PM CDT Sun Apr 01 2018

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some hail may accompany thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest
   Monday night.

   ...Midwest...

   Strong short-wave trough is forecast to dig southeast across the
   northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains region by the end
   of the day2 period. Height falls, on the order of 150m in 12 hours,
   will focus across NE during the latter half of the period which will
   encourage a strengthening LLJ ahead of a pronounced cold front/lee
   cyclone over KS. Continental air mass is currently wedged deep into
   the Plains but by 02/12z this boundary is expected to stall,
   extending from eastern TN into central TX. With time a warm front
   will lift north across southern MO/IL/IN. High PW air mass will
   begin surging atop the shallowing continental air and a very steep
   mid-level lapse rate plume should overspread much of the Midwest
   along the I-70 corridor during the latter half of the period. There
   is increasing confidence that robust elevated thunderstorms could
   develop along the nose of the strengthening LLJ where latest NAM
   guidance depicts MUCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg for parcels
   lifted near 850mb. For these reasons have introduced 5% severe probs
   to account for the possibility of large hail with elevated
   thunderstorms that develop primarily during the latter half of the
   period.

   ..Darrow.. 04/01/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z