SPC AC 061720

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 06 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong/severe storms, primarily capable of damaging winds,
   will be possible Saturday from parts of the central/eastern Gulf
   Coast to the coastal Carolinas.

   ...Synopsis...
   Cyclonic flow aloft is expected to persist east of the Rockies
   throughout much of the period before deamplifying very late in the
   period behind a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving into the
   Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At the surface, a strong cold front will
   likely extend from a low over central AL southwestward into deep
   South TX. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead
   of this front at the beginning of the period, likely the remnant of
   a decaying convective system that will move through the lower MS
   Valley Friday night. Reintensification of ongoing activity and/or
   new development is expected ahead of this front as it continues
   southeastward across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
   Convection will likely be ongoing over far southeast LA at the
   beginning of the period. Moist airmass ahead of these storms is
   supportive of modest instability, which, when combined with
   favorable low-level shear (i.e. 0-1 km shear around 20 kt), may
   result in occasional damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
   tornado.

   Overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
   along and ahead of the front throughout the day as forcing for
   ascent interacts with the slowly destabilizing airmass.
   Destabilization will likely be tempered by abundant cloudiness,
   muted daytime heating, and the lack of stronger height falls, with
   MLCAPE generally expected to remain below 1000 J/kg. Even so,
   increasing mid-level flow and a deepening surface low will result in
   favorable vertical wind profiles and a few more organized storms are
   possible, particularly across southern GA and southeast SC. Primary
   severe threat will be damaging wind gusts but a brief tornado or two
   is also possible.

   ..Mosier.. 04/06/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z