SPC AC 271724

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected across much of the
   Rockies, with locally gusty winds possible.  A few low-topped
   thunderstorms may also occur over the Upstate New York/Vermont area,
   within a broader area of showers.

   ...Discussion...
   Gradual progression of the large-scale upper pattern is expected
   Saturday, as two separate troughs -- flanking an intervening
   western/central U.S. ridge -- advance eastward through the period.

   At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Northeast
   and southward across the Southeast, in advance of the eastern upper
   system.  In the west, a second front is progged to cross the
   Intermountain West/Great Basin region.  Showers and embedded
   thunderstorms -- particularly through peak diurnal heating -- will
   accompany the western frontal advance.  In particular, a few
   stronger cells may develop during the late afternoon over western
   Montana and possibly adjacent eastern Idaho, where the most
   favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected.  Still, with a low PW
   airmass -- and thus entrainment concerns with developing convection
   likely to limit storm intensity/longevity, will refrain from
   introduction of a severe weather risk area despite very
   limited/local potential for evaporatively aided downdrafts.

   Elsewhere, showers -- and possibly a few low-topped thunderstorms --
   are also expected over parts of the Northeast, maximized during the
   afternoon hours.  However, severe weather is not expected.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Goss.. 04/27/2018

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