Jul 5, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 5 17:20:56 UTC 2018 (20180705 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180705 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180705 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 57,841 10,997,088 Boston, MA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Hartford, CT...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180705 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 57,685 11,024,755 Boston, MA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Hartford, CT...
   SPC AC 051720

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 05 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND AND NORTHWEST MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms may be possible across New England Friday
   morning, accompanied by a localized threat for gusty winds. One or
   two strong thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon near the
   Alberta border of northwest Montana.

   ...New England...

   Strong mid-level height falls will spread across New England early
   in the period ahead of a short-wave trough. Associated surface front
   is forecast to extend from northern ME into NY at 12z...progressing
   to near the coast of ME by early afternoon. Convection will likely
   be ongoing at the start of the period and extensive clouds and poor
   lapse rates will not be particularly favorable for robust updrafts.
   However, increasing bulk shear will aid the potential for some
   organization and gusty winds could accompany the stronger
   thunderstorms. Primary risk for this marginal threat will be with
   frontal convection that spreads across the region early in the
   period.

   ...Northwest MT...

   Dominant upper ridge is forecast to flatten across AB/northwest MT
   during the latter half of the period. While the strongest
   large-scale forcing will remain north of the international border it
   appears there may be some risk for one or two storms to develop near
   the AB/SK border of northwest MT as surface temperatures soar into
   the lower 90s. If convection is able to develop across this region
   it will remain quite isolated in nature. Given the expected large
   temp-dew point spreads gusty winds would be the primary threat.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Darrow.. 07/05/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z