SPC AC 051720
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 05 2018
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND NORTHWEST MT...
A few strong storms may be possible across New England Friday
morning, accompanied by a localized threat for gusty winds. One or
two strong thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon near the
Alberta border of northwest Montana.
Strong mid-level height falls will spread across New England early
in the period ahead of a short-wave trough. Associated surface front
is forecast to extend from northern ME into NY at 12z...progressing
to near the coast of ME by early afternoon. Convection will likely
be ongoing at the start of the period and extensive clouds and poor
lapse rates will not be particularly favorable for robust updrafts.
However, increasing bulk shear will aid the potential for some
organization and gusty winds could accompany the stronger
thunderstorms. Primary risk for this marginal threat will be with
frontal convection that spreads across the region early in the
Dominant upper ridge is forecast to flatten across AB/northwest MT
during the latter half of the period. While the strongest
large-scale forcing will remain north of the international border it
appears there may be some risk for one or two storms to develop near
the AB/SK border of northwest MT as surface temperatures soar into
the lower 90s. If convection is able to develop across this region
it will remain quite isolated in nature. Given the expected large
temp-dew point spreads gusty winds would be the primary threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z