SPC AC 090557

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Thu Aug 09 2018

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday over parts of the
   southeast two-thirds of the country, and also over parts of the
   Pacific Northwest.

   ...Synopsis...
   Gradual eastward progression of the upper flow field is forecast
   over the U.S. Friday, as an upper low over the eastern Pacific
   nears/reaches the Pacific Northwest Coastal area, nudging the
   northern extension of ridging over the Intermountain West a bit
   eastward as well.  Still farther downstream, broad upper troughing
   extending from New England southwestward to the southern Plains will
   likewise make minor eastward/southeastward progress.

   At the surface, two very weak/diffuse remnant fronts will reside
   over the eastern two thirds of the country -- one over the
   Midwest/Ohio Valley and the second from the Carolinas across the Mid
   South to the southern Plains.  Meanwhile in the west, a stronger
   front -- associated with the slowly advancing Pacific upper system
   -- will cross the Pacific Northwest through the period.

   Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across roughly the
   southeastern two-thirds of the country, though generally weak flow
   aloft suggests that overall risk for severe storms should remain
   limited/localized -- and thus insufficient to include any risk areas
   at this time.  One area where the kinematic environment could
   support locally gusty-damaging winds appears to be Arizona, with
   flow favorable for any developing high-terrain convection to move
   westward into the lower deserts.  However, model forecasts suggest
   that instability will likely be limited -- owing partially to weak
   lapse rates associated with the prior day's anticipated convection. 
   Thus, will refrain from introduction of a risk area at this time.

   Finally, very isolated showers/a couple of thunderstorms may occur
   ahead of the approaching upper system across the Pacific Northwest,
   but appreciable severe risk is not apparent.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Goss.. 08/09/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z