SPC AC 070454

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CDT Thu Sep 06 2018

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple severe storms, capable of isolated damaging winds and hail,
   may be possible over the northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and
   evening.

   ...Northern High Plains...
   Within a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly 500mb flow, a shortwave
   trough will approach the region Saturday afternoon. As it does so, a
   lee trough will gradually spread east towards the Montana / North
   Dakota border. Meanwhile, despite modest low-level moisture return
   (e.g., surface dew points in the 40s to lower 50s), steep mid-level
   lapse rates and diurnal heating should foster weak/moderate buoyancy
   along/ahead of the surface trough. Isolated to widely scattered
   storms should be able to develop within this environment. Organized
   by winds veering with height, a few updrafts may become strong
   enough to support marginally severe hail. Steep lapse rates will
   also encourage gusty winds in stronger cores.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley...
   The remnant circulation of Gordon is forecast to lift
   north/northeast Saturday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley
   and vicinity. In response, a low-level jet is expected to strengthen
   over portions of the lower Ohio Valley. A related increase in
   warm-air advection should support widespread showers and
   thunderstorms through the day. Although instability will be weak,
   sufficient low-level shear could develop to yield a couple of
   stronger gusts or even a brief tornado. While a marginal risk was
   considered for this outlook, continued uncertainty regarding the
   placement of the surface low/front and low-end/focused nature of any
   potential threat preclude severe probabilities at this time.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Picca.. 09/07/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z