Sep 25, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 25 04:45:56 UTC 2018 (20180925 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180925 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180925 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 167,854 59,701,329 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
MARGINAL 127,643 19,283,497 Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Buffalo, NY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180925 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 167,649 59,783,534 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
5 % 127,209 19,051,727 Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Buffalo, NY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
   SPC AC 250445

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms associated with a wind damage threat are
   expected to develop on Wednesday from the central Appalachian
   mountains to the Northeast. A tornado threat will also be possible
   mainly from eastern Pennsylvania northeastward into New England.

   ...Central Appalachians/Northeast...
   An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the Great
   Lakes region on Wednesday. At the begining of the period, a cold
   front should be located from southwestern Ontario extending
   southwestward into the Ohio Valley. This front will advance
   east-southeastward across the Northeast and central Appalachian on
   Wednesday. A line of thunderstorms should be ongoing along the front
   at the start of the period and this line is forecast to gradually
   intensify during the day. Scattered thunderstorms will also be
   possible ahead of the cold front from the northern Appalachians
   southwestward across parts of the Mid Atlantic.

   Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid
   to upper 60s F. This should result in weak instability across the
   central and northern Appalachians but a corridor of moderate
   instability will be possible in the lower elevations of the
   Mid-Atlantic. The moist airmass combined with strong winds just
   above the surface will be favorable for a wind damage threat with
   the faster moving line segments. The potential for wind damage
   should be the greatest in eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York and
   western New England where the combination of instability and low to
   mid-level flow is forecast to be maximized. A tornado threat may
   also accompany the more intense parts of the line, especially across
   western New England where the mid-level and low-level jets are
   forecast to be closer together.

   Although strong deep-layer shear is forecast across parts of the
   central Appalachians, low-level flow should be much weaker with
   southwestward extent into parts of southern West Virginia and
   central to eastern Kentucky. For this reason, the wind damage threat
   is expected to be marginal across the southern portion of the
   central Appalachian Mountains.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Broyles.. 09/25/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z