SPC AC 291728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday
   night.

   DISCUSSION:
   A few changes have been made in the general thunderstorm forecast
   areas across the central U.S. and the Gulf Coast States based on
   latest trends in forecast guidance.

   ...Southwest states...
   A midlevel perturbation moving into AZ Sunday afternoon/evening and
   a substantial poleward increase in precipitable water as Hurricane
   Rosa approaches northern Baja per latest NHC guidance suggest
   convective development remains likely from south to north in AZ, and
   perhaps into southeast CA and parts of western NM.  Effective bulk
   shear, midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy will be weak, though steep
   low-level lapse rates could result in locally strong wind gusts. 
   However, lack of an organized storm potential precludes the
   introduction of severe probabilities.

   ...Elsewhere...
   The lack of sufficient CAPE/shear parameter space precludes the
   likelihood for organized severe storms across the Gulf Coast states,
   northern Rockies, and the central Plains into the Great Lakes.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Peters.. 09/29/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z