Oct 11, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 11 17:05:54 UTC 2018 (20181011 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181011 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181011 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 39,576 540,282 Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Big Spring, TX...West Odessa, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20181011 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 39,517 540,402 Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Big Spring, TX...West Odessa, TX...
   SPC AC 111705

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind
   gusts may develop across parts of west Texas Friday night.

   ...West Texas...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico on
   Friday and into west Texas Friday night. Ahead of the approaching
   system, a moist airmass will be in place in the Rio Grande Valley.
   Some moisture advection should take place during the day with
   surface dewpoints across parts of west Texas reaching the lower to
   mid 60s F. In response, a corridor of moderate instability should be
   in place from southwest Texas into the Big Bend vicinity by Friday
   evening. Although a cap is forecast to gradually weaken across west
   Texas on Friday, thunderstorm development is not expected until
   later in the evening as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
   approaching shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to increase
   in coverage around midnight across far west Texas with convection
   moving across the Midland area after midnight. Forecast soundings at
   06Z on Saturday for Midland show MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km
   shear around 50 kt. This should be enough for an isolated severe
   threat. However, lapse rates are forecast to be poor which should
   keep any threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the
   primary hazards.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Broyles.. 10/11/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z