Oct 12, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 12 05:38:36 UTC 2018 (20181012 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181012 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181012 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 65,635 6,275,161 San Antonio, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20181012 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 64,884 5,831,701 San Antonio, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...
   SPC AC 120538

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
   central Texas on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong area of high pressure will spread southward across much of
   the West as a shortwave trough drops south toward the Great Basin.
   To the east, another area of high pressure will move from the OH
   Valley toward the Mid Atlantic behind a rapidly departing upper
   trough. Meanwhile, a southern stream wave will move across southern
   CA into AZ, preceded by the remnants of TC Sergio which will affect
   the southern Plains with rain and thunderstorms mainly over TX and
   OK.

   ...TX...
   Beneath a band of 50-60 kt midlevel southwest flow aloft, the
   remnants of TC Sergio will enhance lift and moisture as it travels
   rapidly eastward across TX and OK toward the Arklatex. The surface
   low is forecast to move from southwest TX toward north TX during the
   day, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north behind a warm
   front. Rain is likely north of the warm front into OK, but
   instability will be weak. Modest MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg are
   forecast across the warm sector in TX, along with veering winds with
   height which would typically support supercells. However, a notable
   midlevel subsidence inversion will be present, reducing instability
   and likely mitigating storm severity. Still, a few cells may produce
   locally severe wind or hail near the low track.

   ...AZ...
   Cool air aloft with the upper trough and daytime heating will aid
   afternoon storm development over south central AZ. Forecast
   soundings show strong shear aloft, but generally weak low-level
   winds. A few cells may produce small hail, but severe weather is not
   currently expected.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Jewell.. 10/12/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z