SPC AC 140419

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms are possible across far southern Texas on
   Monday, but severe weather is not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A confluent flow regime will exist over the central U.S. on Monday
   with strong northwest flow aloft extending from central Canada to
   the northern Plains, and southwesterly flow from northern Mexico
   into the southern Plains. At the surface, a large area of high
   pressure will extend from the Rockies across the Plains and into the
   MS and OH Valleys, with a cold front situated from the TX coast to
   the OH and TN Valleys by afternoon. 

   Ahead of the front, substantial low-level moisture will exist with
   70s F dewpoints from southern TX eastward along the Gulf Coast. The
   undercutting of this moist, unstable air mass will lead to
   thunderstorms across much of TX, with large-scale lift well north of
   the front in the form of warm advection. Prior to frontal passage, a
   few strong storms are possible over Deep South TX and the middle TX
   coast, with a few strong wind gusts possible. Otherwise, forecast
   soundings north of the front do not appear to favor any form of
   severe thunderstorms.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Jewell.. 10/14/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z