SPC AC 011725

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Thu Nov 01 2018

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE EAST COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to locally severe storms, capable of isolated wind
   damage, will be possible across parts of the East Coast through
   Friday night.

   ...Discussion...
   A highly amplified mid/upper trough will advance towards the East
   Coast Friday, as one shortwave impulse dives southeast towards the
   lower Mississippi Valley and another upstream impulse crosses the
   Pacific Northwest. Along the eastern flank of the longwave trough,
   increasing south/southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the
   East Coast, and multiple, convectively augmented impulses will
   likely be embedded within this flow regime. Each of these systems
   will provide some focus for convective enhancement and a related
   threat of gusty winds, through the period.

   The initial perturbation, likely associated with ongoing convection
   across the Southeast, will be lifting across the Mid-Atlantic and
   southern New England Friday morning. Despite surface
   temperatures/dew points in the 60s and weak buoyancy, a few deeper
   convective elements may be capable of transporting this stronger
   momentum to the surface, offering a marginal risk of locally
   damaging gusts from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England through
   late morning.

   A secondary impulse will lift northeast across the Appalachians
   during the afternoon. Its associated warm conveyor will be
   characterized by strengthening 850mb flow from eastern North
   Carolina to the Delmarva. Ascent related to warm advection, combined
   with low-level confluence along the surface front, may yield a few
   deeper cells during the afternoon/evening hours from Virginia to New
   Jersey. These cells may also be capable of locally damaging gusts.

   From Florida to the Carolinas, an initial round of gusty winds will
   be possible Friday morning. Lingering showers and storms will be
   pushing east early in the period, and some continued enhancement of
   0-3km flow on the southern end of the low-level jet may yield a few
   damaging gusts. Thereafter, a second round of strong storms may be
   possible late Friday night across coastal North Carolina, given the
   influence of the primary shortwave trough traversing the region.
   Isolated damaging winds would be the main threat with these cells as
   well.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Picca.. 11/01/2018

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