Nov 2, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 2 17:15:23 UTC 2018 (20181102 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181102 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181102 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 44,200 9,685,116 Boston, MA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...Manchester, NH...Lowell, MA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20181102 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,379 9,671,784 Boston, MA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...Manchester, NH...Lowell, MA...
   SPC AC 021715

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and storms, capable of gusty, locally damaging winds, will
   be possible across parts of New England Saturday.

   ...Discussion...
   A fairly active synoptic pattern will persist across the country to
   start the weekend. While one broad/diffuse shortwave trough will
   drop southeast across the High Plains, a very strong impulse will
   accelerate northeast across New England through the day. Associated
   with the focused corridor of DCVA, a surface cyclone will rapidly
   deepen as it lifts north/northeast into the Canadian Maritimes
   during the afternoon/evening.

   Initially, a powerful low-level jet (associated with the warm
   conveyor east of the organizing low) will spread across southeast
   New England Saturday morning. Although low/mid-level lapse rates
   will be poor, forecast soundings depict sufficiently deep buoyancy
   for pockets of stronger convection, aided by warm-air advection tied
   to the aforementioned jet. Additionally, surface temperatures/dew
   points into the 60s should be high enough to allow downward mixing
   of greater momentum aloft in stronger cores. Such processes may
   yield isolated damaging gusts through the morning hours.

   Thereafter, as the deepening cyclone lifts north/northeast across
   New England, the warm sector to its east should be adequate for at
   least shallow convective elements by afternoon. These cells will
   likely be focused near/just ahead of the cyclone, supported by
   low-level convergence coupled with the strong, negatively tilted
   impulse. Considering strong flow of 50+ kt within the convective
   layer, some convectively enhanced damaging gusts appear possible.
   Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded northward across New
   Hampshire and Maine.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Picca.. 11/02/2018

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