SPC AC 021715
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
Showers and storms, capable of gusty, locally damaging winds, will
be possible across parts of New England Saturday.
A fairly active synoptic pattern will persist across the country to
start the weekend. While one broad/diffuse shortwave trough will
drop southeast across the High Plains, a very strong impulse will
accelerate northeast across New England through the day. Associated
with the focused corridor of DCVA, a surface cyclone will rapidly
deepen as it lifts north/northeast into the Canadian Maritimes
during the afternoon/evening.
Initially, a powerful low-level jet (associated with the warm
conveyor east of the organizing low) will spread across southeast
New England Saturday morning. Although low/mid-level lapse rates
will be poor, forecast soundings depict sufficiently deep buoyancy
for pockets of stronger convection, aided by warm-air advection tied
to the aforementioned jet. Additionally, surface temperatures/dew
points into the 60s should be high enough to allow downward mixing
of greater momentum aloft in stronger cores. Such processes may
yield isolated damaging gusts through the morning hours.
Thereafter, as the deepening cyclone lifts north/northeast across
New England, the warm sector to its east should be adequate for at
least shallow convective elements by afternoon. These cells will
likely be focused near/just ahead of the cyclone, supported by
low-level convergence coupled with the strong, negatively tilted
impulse. Considering strong flow of 50+ kt within the convective
layer, some convectively enhanced damaging gusts appear possible.
Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded northward across New
Hampshire and Maine.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None
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