SPC AC 190614
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected over the Lower 48 States on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Western CONUS ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward while
losing amplitude. A similar loss of amplitude is anticipated within
the upper troughing across the eastern CONUS as an embedded
shortwave trough moves from the OH Valley of the New England coast.
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move
across the Southwest States, reaching the southern High Plains by
12Z Wednesday.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure, initially centered
over the Ozark Plateau, is expected to shift southeastward into the
Mid-South. Offshore flow associated with this high will prevent the
advection of low-level moisture (and its associated instability)
into the Southeast, precluding the necessary ingredients for
thunderstorms. Stable conditions are anticipated elsewhere across
the CONUS.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
..Mosier.. 11/19/2018
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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