SPC AC 171714

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Low thunderstorm probabilities are expected across parts of the
   Pacific Northwest and Texas on Tuesday.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   Strong forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave
   trough and left exit region of an upper jet will overspread parts of
   the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday evening. Related steepening of
   mid-level lapse rates behind a surface cold front should support
   weak instability for mainly portions of western WA by Tuesday
   afternoon. Isolated lightning strikes could occur with any of the
   deeper convective showers that can reach sufficient height to induce
   charge separation.

   ...TX...
   A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico
   should amplify as it moves eastward across the southern Plains
   through the period. Attendant mid-level jet will likewise translate
   from the Big Bend region of TX to the coastal plain by Tuesday
   night. Even through low-level moisture will remain meager ahead of
   this feature, there may be sufficient elevated instability to
   support isolated thunderstorms. Relatively greater convective
   potential may be realized late Tuesday night near the middle/upper
   TX Coast and into parts of east TX as a weak surface low forms along
   the coast and low-level warm air advection modestly strengthens.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Gleason.. 12/17/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z