SPC AC 260628

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday over southeast
   Texas into central Louisiana and southern Mississippi.  Damaging
   winds and a tornado or two are the primary severe risks.

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent mid-level trough --featuring a 100kt 500mb speed max-- will
   move from the southern Plains northeast into the lower MO Valley by
   evening, and subsequently moving into the western Great Lakes states
   and weakening substantially late Thursday night.  In the low levels,
   a surface low will move from the KS/NE border to Green Bay during
   the period.  A trailing cold front will push across the Ozarks while
   an effective boundary over eastern TX will move through a large part
   of LA and MS.  

   ...Southeast TX and central Gulf Coast states... 
   On Thursday morning, an extensive squall line will be ongoing from
   southeast TX north-northeast into AR.  A risk for damaging gusts and
   perhaps a tornado or two will accompany the line in association with
   rear inflow jets and embedded mesovortices.  A strong southerly LLJ
   (45-60kt) will gradually weaken through the day over the lower MS
   Valley as the deep-layer cyclone becomes increasingly displaced from
   the lower MS Valley.  It appears the greatest risk for damaging
   gusts and a weak tornado is bounded by the northern extent of middle
   60s surface dewpoints where surface-based CAPE will develop.  As the
   squall line moves farther east into eastern MS by early evening, a
   less unstable airmass and the lack of additional diurnal
   destabilization ahead of the line will probably lead to a waning in
   the coverage and magnitude of the severe risk.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Smith.. 12/26/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z