SPC AC 261734

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS EAST TO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday from southeast
   Texas across central Louisiana and southern Mississippi to parts of
   southwest Alabama.  Damaging winds and a tornado or two are the
   primary severe risks.

   ...Synopsis...
   Slow movement/expansion of cyclonic upper flow is expected over the
   U.S. Thursday, with ridging aloft confined to only the West and East
   Coasts by the end of the period.

   At the surface, a primary low pressure center is progged over the
   northeast Kansas vicinity at the start of the period, with a cold
   front trailing southward across eastern Oklahoma and into East Texas
   and the Texas coastal region.  This low is progged to shift
   northeastward toward the Great Lakes through the period, in
   conjunction with an associated short-wave trough aloft embedded in
   the broader cyclonic flow field.  As the low advances, the trailing
   front will as well -- and is expected to extend from Ohio
   south-southwest to near the mouth of the Mississippi by the end of
   the period.

   ...Western and central Gulf Coast region...
   Vigorous/locally severe thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at
   the start of the period, from the southern Arkansas/northern
   Louisiana vicinity southwest to the upper Texas Coast vicinity. 
   With south winds ahead of the front advecting high theta-e air
   northward/onshore, a zone of ample instability is expected to
   precede the front as it advances across the central Gulf Coast
   region with time.  Though stronger ascent aloft will remain much
   farther to the north, ample ascent near the front should maintain a
   band/line of storms -- while a few isolated cells may also evolve
   ahead of the main frontal band, in a zone of low-level warm
   advection.

   Again -- with the stronger forcing aloft remaining well to the north
   -- and thus likewise the stronger flow field aloft, shear will still
   be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms both within the
   main band, and with any isolated cells in advance.  Therefore,
   potential for damaging winds is evident with stronger cells, along
   with some threat for hail and a couple of tornadoes.  Risk should
   persist through the afternoon and into the evening, before waning
   some overnight as ascent continues to shift northeast/away from the
   region.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Goss.. 12/26/2018

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