Jan 8, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 8 08:18:55 UTC 2018 (20180108 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180108 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180108 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180108 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080818

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2018

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and a few/embedded thunderstorms will be possible across
   portions of the Four Corners states and eastward into the central
   Plains Wednesday.  Showers and a storm or two may also occur over
   south Florida.

   ...Synopsis...
   While a weak upper disturbance will continue moving across the
   Cuba/the Caribbean vicinity, ridging is forecast to otherwise
   prevail over the eastern states.  Farther west, a much larger trough
   is forecast to evolve/expand, as northern- and southern-stream
   systems phase with time.  This expanding trough is forecast to shift
   across the Rockies and into the Plains, and should reside over the
   central third of the country by Thursday morning.

   At the surface, an expansive frontal system will shift across the
   Plains, as the aforementioned upper trough advances.  By the end of
   the period, the front should extend from the Upper Great Lakes
   south-southwest to Texas by the end of the period.

   ...Southern Rockies and into the Plains...
   Showers and occasional/embedded thunderstorms will spread across the
   southern Rockies and into the central/southern high Plains region,
   ahead of an ejecting southern-stream system.  Weak instability
   should generally limit thunderstorm activity.

   ...South Florida...
   Showers -- and possibly a thunderstorm or two -- will be possible
   over parts of south Florida and the Keys, as an upper low just south
   of the area advances east.

   ..Goss.. 01/08/2018

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