SPC AC 050538

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm potential will exist from the coastal plain of Texas to
   the Carolina coast Wednesday.

   ...Discussion...

   Weak short-wave trough, within the base of larger eastern US trough,
   is expected to eject east across the Gulf States and deamplify
   during the day3 period. Although large-scale height falls will be
   negligible across this region, substantial moisture return ahead of
   this feature should aid buoyancy for potential convective
   development, especially within a post-frontal environment where
   ascent should be maximized. Convection should be ongoing at the
   beginning of the period from portions of central TX into the TN
   Valley. The greatest risk for robust updrafts, capable of generating
   hail, should be early in the period from TX into LA where mid-level
   lapse rates will be steepest. Even so, forecast soundings suggest
   hail sizes should mostly remain below severe levels where MUCAPE
   could approach 800-900 J/kg if lifting parcels near 900-850mb. Lack
   of meaningful low-level convergence along the front suggests the
   primary risk for convection will be immediately behind the front,
   although weak pre-frontal convection can not be ruled out. The
   probability for gusty winds with near-surfaced based, warm sector
   convection should remain too low for severe wind delineation this
   period.

   ..Darrow.. 02/05/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z