SPC AC 060736
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Tue Mar 06 2018
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.
Within a persistent blocking pattern, models indicate that a broad
mid-level closed low will continue to evolve across the Northeast
during this period, contributing to the maintenance of amplified
cyclonic flow east of the Mississippi Valley through the western
Atlantic. Upstream, large-scale mid/upper ridging appears likely to
persist, particularly within consolidated branches of westerlies
emanating from the mid-latitude and subtropical Pacific, across the
Southwest into the southern High Plains. To the north, a remnant
cyclonic circulation approaching the Oregon coast early Thursday is
forecast to accelerate inland. Considerable weakening and
deformation of this feature is forecast within a confluent regime,
but at least some flattening of broader scale ridging appears
probable across the northern intermountain region.
In association with the inland migrating impulse, modest mid-level
cooling may contribute to steepening lapse rates across parts of the
Columbia Valley and Basin into the northern Rockies. There are some
indications within model output that this could be sufficient to
support weak thunderstorm development. However, at this time, it
not clear that this will be more than very isolated and brief in
nature (i.e. less than 10 percent probability/coverage).
The evolving pattern is expected to maintain generally stable
conditions with negligible risk for thunderstorms.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z